2016

Mesoscale Discussion #0101


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14 CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WILL SPREAD EWD FROM SCNTRL MS INTO SRN AND CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TO THE EAST OF WW 14.


DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1007 MB LOW NEAR JACKSON MS JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS SSWWD FROM THE SFC LOW INTO SRN LA WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH. A THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW INTO CNTRL AL. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S F AND MLCAPE IS ESTIMATED BY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS IN THE 500 TO 1000 J/KG RANGE. IN ADDITION...STRONGLY ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG A CONFLUENCE ZONE EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS FAR SRN MS INTO SRN AL. THE AXIS OF A 40 TO 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED ALONG THIS CORRIDOR. THE MOBILE WSR-88D VWP IS SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL JET WELL WITH A LOOPED HODOGRAPH AND 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 475 TO 500 M2/S2. AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. TORNADIC STORMS MAY BE MOST FAVORABLE ALONG THE CONFLUENCE ZONE IN SRN MS AND SRN AL AND ALSO ALONG THE THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL AL. SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE THIS AFTERNOON.

Mesoscale Discussion #0104


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 14...15...CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...A TORNADO THREAT ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM  SRN LA EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL MS INTO SRN AND CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.


DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DEEPENING 1005 MB LOW JUST TO THE WEST OF MERIDIAN MS WITH A THERMAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL AL. A LARGE CLUSTER OF CELLS IS ONGOING TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ALONG A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED ZONE OF CONFLUENCE. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ONGOING NEAR THE SFC LOW EXTENDING SWD ALONG A SFC TROUGH INTO SE LA. THE WARM SECTOR IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE THERMAL BOUNDARY AND EXTENDS WWD INTO SRN LA JUST AHEAD OF A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. A 40 TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS ANALYZED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM SRN LA NEWD ACROSS CNTRL MS INTO NCNTRL AL. THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO SRN MS AND SCNTRL AL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN OR SLIGHTLY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES FROM THE ERN PART OF WW 14 EWD ACROSS WW 15. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS MAY ALSO CONTAIN WIND DAMAGE AND HAVE AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THREAT. A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT SHOULD ALSO PERSIST AS A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT...MOVES SEWD INTO SE LA AND FAR SRN MS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

Mesoscale Discussion #0126


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT


SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FURTHER INCREASING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN LA INTO CNTRL/SRN MS...WITH THE TORNADO RISK SPREADING INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY THIS EVENING. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE. A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY AROUND 21Z.


DISCUSSION...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REFLECTED BY 2-HOUR PRESSURE FALLS OF 2.0-3.5 MB ARE ANALYZED AHEAD OF A SFC LOW CENTERED N OF LUFKIN TX. A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD TO A WARM FRONT BRANCHING E/ENE OF THE LOW INTO THE ARKLAMISS REGION AND EWD...ASSOCIATED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S. POCKETS OF MODEST INSOLATION WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER DESTABILIZATION S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J PER KG SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20/.


MIXED-MODE CONVECTION -- INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS -- CONTINUES EVOLVING ACROSS PARTS OF SRN LA...AS ADDRESSED IN RECENTLY ISSUED MCD 0125. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNEWD/NEWD THIS AFTERNOON AMIDST A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...EVENTUALLY EXTENDING N OF WW 19 PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 20-21Z. LATER...THE RISK FOR SVR CONVECTION INCLUDING TORNADOES WILL SPREAD EWD INTO PARTS OF SWRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE BY EVENING. LONG/CURVED HODOGRAPHS HAVE ALREADY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH LOW-LEVEL SRH POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 500 M2/S2 FROM SERN MS AND POINTS EWD THIS EVENING AS H85 SLYS INCREASE TO 50-65 KT. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING -- ESPECIALLY FROM SERN MS INTO SWRN/S-CNTRL AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

Mesoscale Discussion #0127


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 19...20...CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...THROUGH AROUND 2230Z...THE GREATEST TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL EXIST S OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF GULFPORT MS TO SE OF BATON ROUGE. SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.


DISCUSSION...VIS IMAGERY INDICATES CONVECTION BECOMING INCREASINGLY ROBUST INVOF THE SRN FLANK OF A PRECIP SHIELD COVERING PORTIONS OF SRN MS AND SERN LA. SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SUPERCELL CLUSTERS EVOLVING ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MCD AREA IN THE SHORT-TERM. A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SRH HAS BEEN NOTED BY THE LIX VWP DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...WITH 0-1-KM SRH NOW OVER 500 M2/S2 AND AMPLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. WITH A CONTINUOUS FEED OF UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS FROM THE GULF...MLCAPE AROUND 500-1250 J/KG WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ROBUST ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST...ESPECIALLY IN PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH 20.

Mesoscale Discussion #0130


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 21 CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...STRONG TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS AND MOVING INTO SWRN AL.


DISCUSSION...VERY RAPID INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND THE ENLARGEMENT OF THE HODOGRAPH IS EVIDENT FROM KMOB VAD DATA DURING THE PAST 2 HOURS /300 M2 PER S2 TO 700 M2 PER S2 0-3 KM SRH/.  THIS INCREASE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW HAS BEEN COINCIDENT WITH 1-2 MB PER HOUR PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS THE REGION AS STRONG MID-LEVEL DCVA OVERSPREADS THE MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR.  RECENT SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS ALSO PLACES A DUAL MESOLOW STRUCTURE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEVERE STORM CLUSTERS ACROSS SRN MS AND SERN LA.  GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FACTORS AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND PROFILE...EXPECTING A COUPLE OF TORNADOES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS DOWNSTREAM OF THE AREAS WITH ONGOING SUPERCELLS.  IF SEMI-DISCRETE UPDRAFTS CAN EVOLVE ON THE SRN PORTION OF THE LARGER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX...A HIGHER-END CORRIDOR OF POTENTIAL FOR A CYCLIC TORNADIC SUPERCELL CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES MAY OCCUR.

Mesoscale Discussion #0132


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 20 CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...SIGNIFICANT TORNADO POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO NEAR THE AL/FL PANHANDLE BORDER.


DISCUSSION...KMOB IMAGERY HAS SHOWN A CYCLIC --LIKELY TORNADIC-- SUPERCELL OVER THE SHELF WATERS S OF MOBILE BAY DURING THE PAST HOUR.  THIS INTENSE SUPERCELL HAS DEVELOPED AND MANAGED TO BECOME THE ANCHORING UPDRAFT WITHIN A WARM SECTOR CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SURFACE CONDITIONS INVOF THE SUPERCELL VIA BUOY AND LAND OBSERVATIONS /NEAR 70 TEMP WITH UPPER 60S DEWPOINT/ SUGGEST THIS SURFACE-BASED SUPERCELL WILL LIKELY REMAIN SURFACE-BASED FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS VIA MODEL-BASED PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS.  THE VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR NOW EVIDENT ON THE KMOB VAD /0-3 KM SRH AROUND 600 M2 PER S2/ WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF CONTINUED CYCLING OF THE SUPERCELL AS IT MOVES ASHORE THE AL/FL BORDER VICINITY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

Mesoscale Discussion #0141


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT


SUMMARY...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN/UPSTATE PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS. ONE OR MORE TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION BY MIDDAY FOR WHAT COULD BE A REGIONAL TORNADO OUTBREAK THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDING THE 1630Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK UPDATE...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE PEAK SEVERE PROBABILITIES/INCLUDING STRONG TORNADO RISK/ ARE LIKELY TO BE SHIFTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC/SOUTHERN VA.


DISCUSSION...A DEEP CYCLONE CURRENTLY FEATURING A 986 MB SURFACE LOW OVER THE TN VALLEY/LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC MID/UPPER-LEVEL JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES/CAROLINAS. IN THE WAKE OF THICKER CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...ADDITIONAL BANDS OF SEMI-DISCRETE CONVECTION HAVE BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NC/SC. WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER IN THE PRESENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MATURE/INTENSIFY AND BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED AS IT OTHERWISE RACES NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN A HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. ACCORDINGLY...AT LEAST SOME TORNADO RISK COULD EXIST LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS WESTERN/UPSTATE AREAS...WITH A MORE CERTAIN/ROBUST TORNADO RISK...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF NC INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL VA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BE NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ERODING WEDGE FRONT/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WHERE ROBUST LOW-LEVEL/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG TORNADOES.

Mesoscale Discussion #0150


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH

   26...27...28...CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...INCLUDING A STRONG TORNADO RISK...WILL BE MAXIMIZED THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL NC/SOUTH-CENTRAL VA NORTHEASTWARD TO MUCH OF EASTERN VA/MD INCLUDING THE I-85/I-95 CORRIDORS. TORNADO WATCHES 26/27/28 CONTINUE UNTIL 7PM/9PM/11PM EST RESPECTIVELY.


DISCUSSION...AS OF 21Z...A NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD-SHIFTING WARM FRONT NOW EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL NJ SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA/CENTRAL MD AND NEAR THE DC VICINITY...SOUTHWESTWARD TO BETWEEN THE CHARLOTTESVILLE/FARMVILLE VA AREAS. ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF VA/DELMARVA PENINSULA...A TORNADO/WIND DAMAGE RISK WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED BASIS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS CONTINUE TO RACE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN NEAR-COASTAL AREAS.


OTHERWISE...A MORE CONCENTRATED/HIGHER PROBABILITY TORNADO SCENARIO IS STEADILY APPROACHING ITS PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING FROM THE NC PIEDMONT /INCLUDING THE RALEIGH VICINITY/ AND CENTRAL VA TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF VA/MD COINCIDENT WITH A BROKEN BAND OF INCREASINGLY INTENSE CONVECTION INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED STRONG SUPERCELLS. WITHIN AN ADEQUATELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR /MIDDLE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/...SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS REMAIN MAXIMIZED ACROSS CENTRAL NC/EAST-CENTRAL VA. WITH NEAR-SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY REMAINING AT LEAST SOMEWHAT BACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY...LATEST WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM RALEIGH NC AND WAKEFIELD/STERLING VA ARE SAMPLING 60-70 KT WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 2-3 KM AGL...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM SRH THAT IS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 500 M2/S2. TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED PEAK-RISK CORRIDOR ACROSS NC/VA.

Mesoscale Discussion #0567


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT


SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 21Z. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY ALONG WITH A TORNADO THREAT.


DISCUSSION...STRONG MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX IS TRANSLATING QUICKLY ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  WINDS HAVE RECENTLY GUSTED TO 70KT AT GDP SUPPORTING LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN DRY LINE SURGING EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY LATE AFTERNOON.  STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS STEEPENED LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE DRY LINE WITH VALUES NEAR DRY ADIABATIC.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE BREACHED AND TCU ARE NOW FORMING FROM CANADIAN COUNTY OK...SWD TO JACK COUNTY TX.


LATEST THINKING IS SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP BY 20-21Z TIME FRAME AND SPREAD QUICKLY ENEWD.  EARLIER MCS HAS LEFT A RAIN-COOLED DEMARCATION ACROSS SERN OK AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ENHANCED TORNADO RISK AS SUPERCELLS MATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

Mesoscale Discussion #0573


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...ASIDE FROM LARGE HAIL...A TORNADO RISK WILL CONTINUE PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS /POTENTIALLY THROUGH AT LEAST 00-01Z/ ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND POSSIBLY EAST-CENTRAL OK. TORNADO WATCH 155 CONTINUES UNTIL 02Z/9PM CDT.


DISCUSSION...FOUR DISTINCT SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL OK ROUGHLY 35-40 MILES EAST OF I-35 AS OF 530 PM CDT...WITH THE MOST PROMINENT SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF A TORNADO AND HIGHER-END VELOCITY SIGNATURE CURRENTLY SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND ACROSS PONTOTOC COUNTY OK. AFTER INITIATING NEAR THE DRYLINE...THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY THRIVING IN A BAROCLINICITY/VORTICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT AIDED BY EARLY-DAY PRECIPITATION/RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER. ENVIRONMENT 0-1 KM SRH IS LIKELY IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST OK AS SUBSTANTIATED BY KTLX WSR-88D VWP DATA AND CONTEMPORARY MODIFICATIONS TO THE 18Z OBSERVED NORMAN SOUNDING. ACCORDINGLY...THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE PARTICULARLY FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST OK. THIS CORRIDOR IS OBSERVATIONALLY CONSISTENT WITH REGIONALLY MAXIMIZED PRESSURE FALLS...A CONTINUED TENDENCY FOR A BACKING OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS....AND WARMER AIR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND ADJACENT ARKLATEX /SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THICKER CLOUD COVER HAS PERSISTED ACROSS PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK/.

Mesoscale Discussion #0711


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 203 CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...THE TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS FROM SWRN KS INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.


DISCUSSION...TORNADO THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS W-CNTRL AND SWRN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH MATURING SUPERCELLS. EARLIER TORNADO-PRODUCING STORM ACROSS SCOTT/LANE COUNTIES KS HAS UNDERGONE SEVERAL MERGERS AND HAS EVOLVED INTO AN EWD MOVING CLUSTER...BUT IS STILL EXHIBITING EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS. THE HIGHEST NEAR-TERM TORNADO THREAT WILL REMAIN CENTERED NEAR KDDC TO N OF KLBL...WHERE THE INTERSECTION OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THE DRYLINE IS POSITIONED. VWP DATA FROM KDDC SHOW A CURVED HODOGRAPH WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR A TORNADO THREAT. 


ADDITIONAL STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP FARTHER SWD ALONG/E OF THE DRYLINE INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE HERE /NEAR 4000 J/KG OF MLCAPE/...BUT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAKER. HOWEVER...STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AFTER 00Z SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS.

Mesoscale Discussion #0715


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 204...207...CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL KS...WITH EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS POSSIBLE. FARTHER S...A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS ARE WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE.


DISCUSSION...RADAR TRENDS SHOW NUMEROUS CELL MERGERS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF KS...AND CONVECTION HERE MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF EVOLVING INTO A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER. POTENTIAL FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD DMGG WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED IF UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A MCS OCCURS. SUPERCELLS ARE BEING MAINTAINED ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION TO THE IMMEDIATE N OF THE EARLIER REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND SEVERAL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CONTINUE TO BE NOTED. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS...AND VWP DATA FROM DDC AND ICT ALREADY REFLECT INCREASINGLY LARGE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. 


MEANWHILE...A PAIR OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS HAVE WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING CINH WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING OVERWHELMING ANY INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. THE ASSOCIATED SVR/TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE DECREASING ACROSS THIS AREA.